History Illustrated is a series of perspectives that puts news events and current affairs into historical context, using graphics generated with artificial intelligence.
When it comes to military spending by European states and NATO countries, US President Donald Trump has made it clear he considers their efforts anaemic. So with talk like that, and Russia’s war in Ukraine in its fourth year, Europe is now girding for a fight it isn’t ready for.
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On February 11, 2025, the Danish intelligence service fired a warning salvo. It noted that once the war in Ukraine ends, Russia would need just six months or less to be ready to wage war on a bordering country. In two years, it could start a war in the Baltic region. In five, it could attack Europe, if the US refuses to help. Russia, though, says it has no desire to expand into Europe.But on March 5, French President Emmanuel Macron took aim at Russia and its thriving war economy by also sounding the alarm, saying Russian aggression ‘knows no borders’.The next day, all 27 EU states agreed to extra military spending. Proposals included a plan to increase defence outlays by almost $1 trillion.Not everyone agrees. Yanis Varoufakis, a former Greek finance minister, argues large-scale rearmament is impractical and fiscally rash because the EU lacks a proper treasury and a parliament with real governing power. Instead of rearming, he says peace talks involving Russia and China ought to aim for a neutral, sovereign Ukraine and a new European security deal.While that debate soldiers on, states bordering Russia — Finland, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — all caused dismay by quitting the Ottawa Treaty on anti-personnel landmines.
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Business has also heard the drums of war. Europe’s largest port, Rotterdam, is reserving space for ships carrying military supplies and making plans to divert cargo if war breaks out.And the EU’s 450 million citizens are being encouraged to stockpile at least 72 hours’ worth of essential supplies, like water, canned food and medicine.With so much talk of war, it brings to mind a Roman writer named Vegetius who, in the 4th or 5th century AD, penned the adage, ‘If you want peace, prepare for war’. Today, it would be safe to say most Europeans hope Vegetius was right.
