Shabana Mahmood promised to “do whatever it takes” to secure the UK’s borders. It’s now becoming clear what that looks like.

The home secretary is expected to tell Parliament on Monday that successful asylum seekers will only be allowed to stay in the UK temporarily.

When their home country is deemed safe, they will be returned. Their status will be regularly reviewed during the time in between.

When she outlines the government’s new policy, aimed at deterring people from crossing the English Channel illegally to seek a new life in the UK, her declaration is likely to be a warning that the era of permanent protection is over.

The move comes as the Home Office announces that nearly 50,000 illegal migrants have been removed or deported from British soil since Labour came to power.

New figures published show a 23% increase in total removals or deportations compared to the previous 16-month period before July 2024 under the Conservatives.

Government insiders are describing Mahmood’s latest decision as a “significant shift”.

It’s a policy lifted from Denmark – where a government led by the centre-left Social Democrats has presided over one of the toughest asylum and immigration systems in Europe.

A previous presumption in the system to extend permits was scrapped. Refugees are given temporary residence permits, typically of two years, and in effect have to reapply for asylum when they expire.

Even for those who are allowed to extend multiple times, the route to citizenship has grown longer and harder.

Admirers, including Mahmood, point out that as the policies hardened, the poll ratings of the Social Democrat party rose – and those of a populist right-wing movement, the People’s Party fell.

She believes that, unless Labour takes similar decisions here, then “darker forces” could thrive.

Last week I revealed that the Home Secretary had sent senior officials to Denmark to see what lessons could be learned from their system.

And it wasn’t just temporary status for refugees that caught the eyes of her officials.

They also looked at Denmark’s greater restrictions on “family reunion” – when refugees want to bring their spouses, partners or children to the country.

She believes Denmark’s policies serve as a disincentive for people to seek asylum in the first place and is impressed that successful claims are at a 40-year low.

And she believes that what she sees as the current generosity of the UK system is acting as a magnet, and driving small boat crossings.

But it’s not uncontroversial.

Four years ago the Danish government planned to return around 200 refugees to Syria even while the civil war raged – because it said some parts of Damascus were safe.

She will certainly face opposition from some in Labour’s ranks.

When it was revealed that Denmark was being used as a model for tougher rules in the UK, the Labour MP Clive Lewis told the BBC that progressive voters might migrate to more left-wing parties such as the Greens as a result.

And that aspects of the Danish system echo the “talking points of the far right”.

Nottingham MP Nadia Whittome – also on the left of the Labour party – said following in Denmark’s path would be a “dead end – morally, politically and electorally”.

But I understand Shabana Mahmood will issue a warning to her sceptical colleagues.

She will suggest that while some of her reforms may seem immoderate, the alternative could be a further rise in support for Reform UK.

She is expected to say: ‘”If you don’t like this, you won’t like what follows me.”

The home secretary believes Denmark is an example to emulate because its asylum policy – summed up as “less in, more out” – has been achieved while remaining inside the European Convention on Human Rights.

But both she and her opposite number in Denmark – Rasmus Stokland – want to see reforms and to rein in “activist judges” who might give to much emphasis to the ECHR’s provisions on rights to a family life when deciding on deportation cases.

She is expected to address this in her statement to Parliament on Monday.

Both Reform UK and the Conservatives argue that it would be more effective to leave the Convention entirely.

And rather than giving refugees temporary status, Reform UK say they would detain and deport cross-channel arrivals.

The Conservatives argue that the boats cannot be stopped unless a Rwanda-style scheme is restored.

They see this as a deterrent while the Labour government denounced it as a gimmick.

The home secretary is likely to acknowledge on Monday that the crisis at the UK’s borders is “out of control”.

Simply adopting new policies is unlikely in itself to restore the trust of voters tempted by Nigel Farage.

But if the home secretary’s stance actually reduces numbers, she will hope her party will be granted permission to be heard, not just on migration, but on other policies too.