Islamabad, Pakistan – The setting was Mar-a-Lago, the personal residence of United States President Donald Trump, and the question concerned the fate of Russia’s war on Ukraine, which has been raging since February 2022.

“We have stopped eight wars,” Trump said during a news conference on December 22, where he also announced a new class of heavily armed warships that will be named after him.

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“We stopped a potential nuclear war between Pakistan and India,” the president added, making the argument for why he believed he could end the war in Ukraine, though he has so far failed to do so, despite once claiming he could stop the conflict within 24 hours.

“The head of Pakistan and a highly respected general – he is a field marshal – and also the prime minister of Pakistan said that President Trump saved 10 million lives, maybe more,” the US president added. 

This marked at least the 10th instance since June this year that Trump, who returned to the White House in January for a second term, publicly praised Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir.

The most prominent episode came in October, when Trump addressed the Sharm el-Sheikh Peace Summit in Egypt at the conclusion of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

Thanking world leaders for their efforts in the ceasefire, Trump acknowledged Shehbaz Sharif, the Pakistani prime minister, standing behind him, before referring to Munir, describing him as “my favourite field marshal”.

On several other occasions earlier in the year, Trump described Munir as “a great fighter”, “a very important guy”, and an “exceptional human being”. After their first meeting in June, the US president said he was “honoured” to meet the Pakistani military chief.

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That public warmth towards Pakistan’s army chief underscores how Munir emerged as a central driver of the country’s rising geopolitical profile in 2025, analysts say, with some crediting him for reviving the nation’s diplomatic standing, and resurrecting Pakistan’s previously strained ties with Washington.

The US-Pakistan relationship, which was in the doldrums just a few years ago, has since expanded beyond security cooperation to include economic engagement, such as discussions on crypto mining and critical minerals.

Many experts trace this shift to the four-day armed conflict between Pakistan and India in May 2025, arguing that it marked a decisive turning point.

India and Pakistan both claimed “victory” in the air war. But irrespective of who won, Islamabad managed to use the backdrop of the conflict to further its interests, analysts say. The view is also echoed by many in Pakistan’s political and diplomatic circles.

The conflict with India “was the decisive factor that raised [the] army chief’s profile internationally,” Khurram Dastgir Khan, Pakistan’s former foreign affairs and defence minister, told Al Jazeera.

“The victory precipitated many trends that had been gathering force for some time, some of these due to the specific character of the US president, Trump.” 

Short war, lasting consequences

India and Pakistan, the two nuclear-armed neighbours who have fought several wars and have remained locked in rivalry for decades, plunged the region into crisis earlier this year after an April attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians.

India blamed Pakistan, which denied the allegation and called for a “credible, independent, transparent” investigation.

On May 7, India launched strikes inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan responded with air operations, claiming it shot down at least six Indian fighter jets. India confirmed aircraft losses days later, but did not specify the number.

The conflict escalated over the next three days as both sides exchanged drone attacks and, on May 10, launched missiles at each other’s military targets. The fighting ended only after intense backchannel diplomacy, particularly involving the US, produced a ceasefire.

While Pakistan acknowledged Washington’s role and later nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, India insisted the ceasefire came about purely through bilateral dialogue. New Delhi has long argued that any dispute between India and Pakistan can only be resolved bilaterally.

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But since May, Trump has repeatedly invoked the conflict, insisting on more than four dozen occasions that he brokered the ceasefire. He has also, at various points, echoed Pakistan’s claim of downing Indian aircraft.

“[New] Delhi’s sullen refusal to credit Trump with the ceasefire opened a space that army chief Munir and PM Sharif moved swiftly to utilise,” Khan, who is also a member of Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party, said.

Salman Bashir, a former Pakistani foreign secretary, agreed, calling the May conflict a “definite turning point”.

Bashir said that Trump is an “unusual president”, and his affinity for Munir, combined with the clash with India, helped reset ties between Islamabad and Washington.

“Asim Munir is pivotal to the revival of [Pakistan’s] diplomatic fortunes,” Bashir told Al Jazeera.

First signs of shift

Pakistan was once a key US ally and was designated a major non-NATO ally following the September 11, 2001, attacks in the US.

The relationship frayed in subsequent years, as US officials accused Islamabad of duplicity in the US’s so-called “war on terror”. During his first term, Trump accused Pakistan of giving the US “nothing but lies and deceit” and of harbouring armed groups. His successor, Joe Biden, later described Pakistan as “one of the most dangerous nations”.

At the same time, US policy pivoted sharply towards India, viewed in Washington as a potential counterweight to China, Pakistan’s closest strategic partner.

Yet, just two months into his second term, Trump struck a different tone. Addressing a joint session of Congress in March, he thanked Pakistan for arresting one of the alleged perpetrators of the Abbey Gate bombing at Kabul airport in August 2021. The attack killed 13 US service members and dozens of Afghan civilians during the US’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

“I want to thank especially the government of Pakistan for helping arrest this monster,” Trump said.

Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Islamabad-based Sanober Institute, said this had been a signal of the US’s shifting approach towards Pakistan.

“[The] US always needed an ally who could help them achieve counterterrorism goals, and while they had been supporting India significantly for the past many years, after the Abbey Gate bomber arrest, [the] US realised Pakistan has the capability to help deliver their goals,” Cheema told Al Jazeera.

“I think the field marshal has emerged as a soldier-diplomat,” he added, noting that Munir had “used his skills of military-diplomacy” to be Pakistan’s “advocate”.

The army chief’s growing diplomatic clout also mirrors his increasingly elevated domestic profile.

Field marshal’s choreography

Since independence from Britain in 1947, Pakistan’s military, particularly the army, has been the most powerful institution in the country.

Four coups and decades of direct government entrenched its dominance. Even under civilian governments, the army chief has often been regarded as the most influential figure in national life.

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Following the May conflict with India, Munir was elevated to field marshal, only the second officer in Pakistan’s history to hold the rank. Later in the year, a constitutional change created the post of Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), to be held concurrently by the Chief of Army Staff (COAS).

The move placed the Pakistan Air Force and Pakistan Navy under Munir’s authority.

Though these moves sparked criticism from sections of the opposition and several independent analysts, Pakistan’s foreign relations appeared to gain momentum through the year.

In South Asia, Islamabad revived ties with Bangladesh following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, widely viewed as close to New Delhi. Several high-level visits followed, including Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar’s trip to Dhaka in August, the most senior Pakistani visit in more than 13 years.

Pakistani civilian and military leaders, including Munir and Sharif, also engaged counterparts from Central Asia, including Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Perhaps most notably, Pakistan sought to balance relations across the Middle East, maintaining ties with Gulf monarchies while also engaging Iran.

After meeting Munir in June, Trump remarked that Pakistanis “know Iran very well, better than most”.

Fahd Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts University, said that these developments effectively “re-telegraphed Pakistan’s strategic currency as a regional actor” with influence beyond its borders.

He identified two unrelated but converging developments: Washington’s renewed focus on the Middle East, particularly Gaza and Iran, and the performance of Pakistan’s conventional air defences during the May conflict with India, which Humayun described as a success.

“Munir moved quickly to capitalise on both, leveraging events, including the conflict with India, the fighting between Israel and Iran in June, and efforts to bring the Gaza war to a close, to engage the highest levels of the Trump administration, while simultaneously consolidating political control at home,” Humayun told Al Jazeera.

Pakistan has also expressed a willingness to participate in the US-led international stabilisation force, a controversial coalition proposed by Trump to oversee the security of Gaza.

Munir has held high-profile meetings with military leaders from Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Libya. The most consequential engagement came in September, when Munir and Sharif met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and signed a mutual defence agreement.

Cheema said that Munir, who made two more visits to the US in August and September, had worked “tremendously hard” to position Pakistan as a regional player beyond South Asia.

“The US sees that Munir and Pakistan can play a larger role, and they are already engaging with US allies in the region,” he said.

Gains abroad, costs at home

Some observers argue that Pakistan’s diplomatic standing has not reached such heights in decades.

Khan claimed that Pakistan is among the few countries maintaining positive relations with all the major stakeholders in global conflicts, including the US, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

“International salience has raised the government’s domestic credibility and consolidated the country’s economic and political stability,” he said.

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Others are more sceptical, and cautious about drawing sweeping conclusions about the trajectory of Pakistani diplomacy in a fast-moving world.

“Pakistan needs political stability. What that means in today’s world is yet to be seen,” Bashir, the former foreign secretary, said, pointing to concerns that “we hear less about democracy and more about centralised control” domestically. 

Maria Rashid, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Wolverhampton, said that Pakistan’s domestic and foreign politics are deeply intertwined.

“The US-Pakistan military love affair is, of course, not new. The relationship putters along even during the lows. As always, this time around, it’s an alignment of interests, one that has had disastrous consequences for democracy in Pakistan historically,” she told Al Jazeera.

Previous periods of close US-Pakistan collaboration include the 1980s, when they both backed the mujahideen in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union, and the post September 11, 2001, period during the US’s “war on terror”. On both occasions, critics argued that US support strengthened the military leaders who governed Pakistan at the time: General Mohammad Zia-ul-Haq in the 1980s, and Pervez Musharraf in the 2000s.

Meanwhile, for all of Pakistan’s mounting diplomatic visibility, violence at home has surged in 2025, particularly in the western provinces bordering Afghanistan, resulting in the highest casualty figures in a decade. Opposition parties and rights groups accuse the government of eroding civil liberties, suppressing the media and engaging in political violence.

The passage of the 27th constitutional amendment earlier this year proved especially controversial. Critics said it granted Munir sweeping powers as the CDF, promised him lifetime immunity and weakened judicial oversight.

The Sanober Institute’s Cheema argues that power in Pakistan has always been shared between elected and unelected institutions, and that the amendment was necessary for military reform.

“People may complain about it and say it is [an] accumulation of power,” he said. But he argued that “this was needed for [the] transformation of the armed forces, and [to] improve cohesion”.

The continued crackdown on the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, the party of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, jailed since August 2023, also continued to draw criticism throughout the year, including from the United Nations.

Rashid, the international relations lecturer, said the May conflict with India came at a crucial moment for Munir and the military, whose popularity had been at a low ebb amid political turmoil and rising violence.

“The fighting in May resulted in Munir’s resurrection as the strongman who proved his mettle against India,” she said.

For the military, Rashid added, foreign policy success has helped push uncomfortable domestic issues into the background.

“Khan’s incarceration, the 27th amendment, the insurgency in Balochistan, all these news items are now relegated to the background against the ‘success’ of Pakistan’s diplomatic and economic relevance internationally,” she said.