Trump’s statement on Iran strikes analysed line by line
11 minutes agoTom Bateman,State department correspondentandDaniel Bush,Washington correspondent
In the early hours of Saturday morning, President Donald Trump announced that the US had launched military strikes on Iran.
In an eight-minute video statement posted to social media, he said the US was undertaking a “massive and ongoing operation” to end the Iranian threat and he called for regime change in Tehran.
“It’s a very simple message,” the president said from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. “They will never have a nuclear weapon.”
The BBC’s State Department correspondent Tom Bateman and Washington correspondent Daniel Bush break down the president’s words line by line to explain how he is justifying the action and assess the risks ahead.
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“Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people. Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies throughout the world.”
The key words here are “imminent threats”. The commander-in-chief knows he has to justify why this attack – which does not have formal international backing nor the authorisation of Congress – is happening now.
Trump makes three cases here: that Iran has been an imminent threat to America ever since the Islamic Revolution in 1979; that it is close to developing intercontinental ballistic missiles that could reach the US – a claim which is not supported by US intelligence assessments; and that it is on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, even though Trump had said these capabilities were “obliterated” after the US strikes last summer.
The reality over the timing is that Trump and Netanyahu view the Iranian leadership as at its weakest point domestically for years with its allied militias in the region decimated after the Gaza war. Tehran’s brutal crushing of this year’s protests started a stopwatch. They believe this is the moment to strikes – Tom Bateman.
“We sought repeatedly to make a deal. We tried. They wanted to do it. They didn’t want to do it again. They wanted to do it. They didn’t want to do it.”
Trump’s case here is that the US had no choice but to strike because of a recalcitrant Iranian regime that played Washington’s outreach to negotiate an end to its nuclear programme. He said on the eve of the attack Tehran wouldn’t “give us what we have to have”.
Over recent weeks Trump equivocated over the extent of his demands, at times saying a deal had to include an end to Iran’s conventional missile capabilities, other times suggesting it did not. But his red line converged on the demand for zero nuclear enrichment. Tehran saw this as a humiliation. Mediated talks between the US and Iran were due to continue next week, with mediator Oman claiming on Friday a breakthrough was within reach with Iran offering no stockpiling of nuclear material. But Trump balked at this.
However, the reality remains it was Trump in his first term who unilaterally pulled the US out of the Obama-led 2015 nuclear deal between world powers and Iran. Trump said the deal was too weak. But Tehran always used this as evidence to claim it was him not them that took the path of violence over negotiations – Tom Bateman.
“For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests.”
Now that Operation Epic Fury is under way, everyone – lawmakers in Congress, US allies, Iran – want to know how long it will last, and how big it might be.
President Trump’s words signal that the scope and scale of the attack will be much larger than the US strike on Iran last summer. But it’s notable that Trump didn’t provide any more details, leaving it up for interpretation whether the strikes will last days, weeks or even longer.
It’s also notable that Trump did not seek congressional authorisation for the attack. That has angered lawmakers, especially Democrats, who are calling for Congress to rein Trump in.
The administration briefed a small group of congressional leaders ahead of the attack. But on Saturday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he hoped the administration briefed “all senators” on the operation. Expect the administration to face growing pressure from Congress to justify this operation.
Separately, by linking Iran to “core national security interests,” Trump is seeking to convince Americans that attacking Tehran will make the US homeland safer. This will be a key challenge for Trump: building support at home for his military actions abroad, at a time when many voters would prefer he focus on domestic issues like the economy and immigration – Daniel Bush.
“The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties, that often happens in war. We’re doing this, not for now, we’re doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission.”
Military actions always carry risk, and there is a long history of US presidents launching wars or covert operations in the Middle East that damaged them politically back home.
President Trump acknowledged that risk by admitting there are likely to be some American casualties. He may be betting that he can rally the American public behind the attack, keep the casualties at a minimum, and come away with some sort of military victory he can tout to voters ahead of the midterm elections in November.
That is a calculated risk, however. It’s unclear how events in Iran will unfold. But if this spirals into a wider regional war it could draw the US back into a lengthy conflict in the Middle East – something Trump promised he wouldn’t do. He campaigned on a pledge to end “forever wars” and disentangle the US from foreign conflicts.
Vice-President JD Vance echoed the sentiment earlier this week, before the strikes started, and it’s a popular position with the MAGA base. But with each new military action abroad Trump and Vance risk alienating supporters who did not envision or want such a muscular approach to foreign policy – Daniel Bush.
“To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity, or, in the alternative, face certain death.”
Here we get to the most critical part of Trump’s speech: his strategic objective. This matters most because ambiguity over his goal has been repeatedly questioned in Congress and the path to it is strewn with the greatest risks of all.
It is now unequivocal this is a war of attempted regime change launched by the US and Israel. Decapitation worked as far as Trump was concerned in Venezuela, storming the capital and snatching leader Nicolas Maduro.
Iranian officials last week appeared to be quietly briefing out the idea that trying to do a Venezuela on them wouldn’t work, that a masterplan was in place even if the supreme leader was killed, with four layers of succession ready to head the regime.
Trump is rolling the dice on a similar outcome to Venezuela, through either a popular uprising or a badly damaged regime that becomes pliant to Washington’s will.
But the dangers are immense. They include the possibility of unleashing uncontrollable civil conflict and bloodshed within Iran itself; a regional conflict drawing in America’s key Arab allies whose monarchies detest the idea of domestic instability; and the deaths of American troops and personnel in the region – Tom Bateman.
“Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand…when we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”
In recent months Trump has pressured Iran on two fronts, urging Tehran to abandon its nuclear weapons programme and stop the deadly crackdown on mass protests that swept the country.
Here, he sought to keep the focus on democracy-building with a direct appeal to the Iranian population. But he also added an ominous warning, saying it would be the “only chance for generations” to transform Iranian society. It’s not quite a call for full regime change, but Trump is making clear the US wants drastic change, and expects it’ll be driven from within the country.
At the same, Trump has made peacemaking a key part of his second-term agenda. He has actively campaigned for the Nobel Peace Prize, and claimed to have ended several wars since returning to office. Iran would be a major part of this legacy, if Trump can secure the outcome he desires.
Exactly what that is remains unclear, however. And if the operation in Iran backfires, it could cost Trump dearly in his push to be seen as a champion of peace on the world stage. It is now the second strike he’s launched on Iran, and joins a growing list of other military actions he’s taken, including airstrikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and the attack on Venezuela – Daniel Bush.