Tehran, Iran – Markets in Iran have welcomed the prospects of an interim understanding with the United States that could offer relief after more than 100 days of hostilities and tension.
The two sides on Sunday appeared close to signing the first stage of a deal – but there was also fierce last-minute pushback from hardliners inside Iran, as well as seemingly from Israel.
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Iran’s national currency strengthened on Sunday, the second day of the working week in Iran, with each US dollar fetching less than 1.68 million rials in Tehran’s open market by noon.
The rial has marginally improved compared with the all-time low of 1.9 million against the greenback last month, but it has been on a downward spiral for years amid chronic inflation.
The price of gold also dropped in Iran despite the weekend freeze in international markets, with each Emami gold coin priced at about 1.71 billion rials (approximately $1,010), down by about 5 percent compared with the market opening on Saturday morning.
After a controlled reopening three weeks ago that ended a three-month shutdown, the Tehran Stock Exchange also continues to grow. The main index of the market grew by 123,000 points by the end of trading on Sunday, reaching a new all-time high of nearly 4.82 million points.
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A young resident of central Tehran said that, regardless of the short-term currency and price changes, he and his family members have been resorting to buying dollars and euros whenever possible in recent months.
“Food or any of the other items that have tripled in price over weeks and months will not get any cheaper when the dollar goes down a bit,” he told Al Jazeera on Sunday.
“Even if this deal is signed, the main long-term problems will not get solved.”
Regardless, the movement in the tumultuous Iranian markets shows a degree of anticipation for a deal that President Donald Trump said will be signed on Sunday.
‘Colony’ of US
Tehran has also said the interim agreement has never been closer, and Qatari mediators arrived in the Iranian capital on Sunday to advance the talks.
Yet hardliners are also sensing a deal may be near – and are pushing the Iranian side to make as few concessions as possible.
The Fars news website, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said Iranian officials were unlikely to sign on Sunday since it was Trump’s birthday.
“It is the birthday of the murderer of our supreme leader; have some honour,” Mohammad Mannan Raisi, an anti-deal member of parliament from Qom, told officials while speaking to supporters of the establishment gathered in the streets of the holy Shia city on Saturday night.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s former supreme leader, was killed on the first day of the joint US-Israeli air attacks on February 28.
In Tehran, Qom and Mashhad, a number of pro-establishment voices expressed their opposition to the deal through speeches, banners and slogans. Some of the chanting directly targeted Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliament speaker who has been appointed to lead the talks, as well as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Mahmoud Nabavian, an ultra-hardline scholar and lawmaker from Tehran, remains the most vocal opponent to an agreement, as with previous deals involving the US and Western powers.
Appearing on state television on Saturday night, he carried what he said was a text of the latest draft of the interim understanding, which he believes must not be signed since it throws away perceived political and military achievements gained after months of war with the US and Israel.
Opposition against the deal has also reignited a debate over the power structure in Iran, where decisions require approval from the supreme leader, now Mojtaba Khamenei, and the Supreme National Security Council, comprised of military commanders and government officials.
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In nightly gatherings and online posts, a number of hardline supporters of the Islamic republic went as far as saying they would oppose the current emerging agreement even if Khamenei greenlights it.
But Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the establishment who led an Islamic revolution in 1979, on Sunday urged all pro-state voices to trust in the top leadership structure.
“All can express their advisory opinions, but once the final decision is made, it must be followed,” he said.
Haft-e Sobh, a government-run daily newspaper, on Sunday reposted old footage of an interview with Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of the armed forces, who was assassinated at the start of the 12-day war with Israel one year ago. This was an apparent attempt to stress the importance of a compromise to safeguard the nation.
In the undated clip, he can be seen saying that at the end of the eight-year war with invading Iraq during the 1980s, Iranian authorities had no choice but to negotiate a United Nations resolution to end the war, since the enemy was backed by stronger foreign powers and the conflict could further devastate the country’s people and infrastructure.
Ali Bagheri Kani, who led negotiations with the US under late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, told state television on Saturday night that even Raisi’s hardline government was on the verge of reaching a deal with Washington to revive a nuclear deal signed with world powers in 2015.
According to the official, the start of the Mahsa Amini nationwide protests in Iran in September 2022 delayed the prospect of bringing back the now-defunct landmark deal, followed by the Hamas-led attacks in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which caused a huge ripple effect across the region.
Today, Israel still plays a prominent adversarial role in another period where Iran and the US are close to a deal.
On Sunday afternoon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered attacks on the southern suburbs of Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, in an apparent attempt to force a reaction from Iran that could jeopardise the deal.
Earlier this month, Iranian authorities hailed a new “strategic doctrine” after launching direct missile attacks on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s targeting of the suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, to attack the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.