Brazil’s Supreme Court could decide on Thursday whether former President Jair Bolsonaro is guilty of masterminding a coup to stay in power following the country’s tense 2022 presidential elections.

Hailed by some Brazilians as “historic”, the landmark case has set the whole country on edge, with tens of thousands rallying in support of the populist former leader, and has also escalated tensions between Latin America’s largest nation and Washington.

Recommended Stories

list of 4 itemsend of list

Bolsonaro faces a five-count charge related to attempts to stage a coup, which he denies. The 70-year-old claims the trial is a politically motivated attempt by the government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to prevent him from seeking another term in the 2026 elections. US President Donald Trump, who counts Bolsonaro as an ally, has echoed that argument and has tried to punish Brazil with higher trade tariffs.

At least three of the five justices of the Supreme Court panel ruling on the case have already voted this week. The final two are expected to cast their votes on Thursday. Sentencing is likely as early as Friday.

Here’s what we know about the trial:

What is this trial about?

Bolsonaro, alongside seven of his close allies, faces several charges of attempting to overturn the October 2022 presidential elections after he lost to Lula, who also served as president between 2003 and 2011.

Specifically, Bolsonaro faces five charges, including: attempting to stage a coup, involvement in an armed criminal organisation, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, and two more counts involving destruction of state property during violent protests by his supporters on January 8, 2023.

Advertisement

Bolsonaro’s lawyer, Celso Vilardi, said he is not guilty of the charges, arguing that, although Bolsonaro assembled top cabinet and military officials to discuss an emergency decree aimed at suspending the elections, the decree was ultimately not issued, and Bolsonaro eventually ordered a transition of power to Lula.

The former leader could face up to 40 years in jail if convicted. The coup plot charge alone carries a 12-year sentence.

Others accused alongside Bolsonaro include former Defence Minister and Bolsonaro’s 2022 running mate Walter Braga Netto, former Defence Minister Paulo Sergio Nogueira, Bolsonaro’s former aide-de-camp Mauro Cid, military adviser Augusto Heleno Ribeiro, former Justice Minister Anderson Torres, former naval chief Almir Garnier Santos, and ex-police officer Alexandre Ramagem.

Where is Bolsonaro now?

Since August, Bolsonaro has remained under house arrest at a heavily guarded building in the capital, Brasilia. He is banned from social media and has only limited access to communications. In 2023, the country’s electoral commission also barred him from running for office until 2030, citing abuse of power.

Supporters of the president have held protests in recent days against what they say is a witch-hunt by the Lula government. There are fears that violent protests could break out if a guilty verdict is reached.

Others, though, have hailed the trial, calling it “historic”, as the first time the country has attempted to hold a leader accused of attempting a coup accountable.

How have judges voted so far?

The Supreme Court hearing began deliberations on a verdict on September 9, and is set to conclude on September 12.

To reach a guilty verdict, three of the five judges must support a conviction.

Three of the five Supreme Court justices had already voted by Thursday. Two more are expected to cast their votes on Thursday, barring adjournments.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the ruling and is considered by Bolsonaro’s supporters to be a major adversary driving the trial, was the first to vote in favour of a conviction on Thursday.

Moraes, in a five-hour-long statement, said that under Bolsonaro’s rule, “Brazil almost returned to a dictatorship,” referring to the military rule that lasted for 21 years from 1964 to 1985.

The judge said there was evidence of a Bolsonaro-led plot, codenamed Operation Green and Yellow Dagger, to assassinate Lula, his vice president, Geraldo Alckmin, as well as Justice Moraes. Those efforts, he said, culminated in Bolsonaro supporters attacking Congress, the Presidential Palace, and the Supreme Court in violent protests on January 8, 2023.

Advertisement

A second justice, Justice Flavio Dino, has also voted to convict Bolsonaro.

Then, on Wednesday, Justice Luiz Fux broke from his colleagues in a surprise move and instead called for the case to be annulled because, he said, it had failed to follow due process.

Fux argued that the Supreme Court had an “absolute lack of jurisdiction” over the case. He said that, because Bolsonaro and his fellow accused are no longer political appointees, the case should have been heard by a lower court.

He also argued that, once the Supreme Court had become involved, the case should have been handled by the full panel of 11 justices, rather than a five-member panel. The defence team, he added, had not been given enough time to prepare its case, while prosecutors were armed with what he called a “tsunami of data” amounting to “billions of pages”.

Fux, however, did rule against two allies of the former president – Mauro Cid and Netto – on the charge of violent abolition of the democratic rule of law.

The two remaining judges must now cast their votes – only one more conviction vote is needed to seal Bolsonaro’s fate.

The two judges – Justice Carmen Lucia and Justice Cristiano Zanin  – were both appointed by Lula: Judge Lucia during Lula’s first term as president in 2006, and Judge Zanin in 2023. Many experts anticipate that they will vote to convict Bolsonaro. However, Judge Lucia has in the past voted against Lula, when he was on trial between 2017 and 2021 on money laundering charges. Lula was eventually acquitted.

Why is Brazil divided on the Bolsonaro case?

The Bolsonaro trial has deepened bitter divides between the former leader’s millions of supporters and those who believe his prosecution is justified.

This past week, as the Supreme Court trial was continuing, Bolsonaro’s supporters mobilised across the country in protests. They demanded that the former leader and his fellow accused be granted an amnesty, and accused the government of failing to allow a fair trial. Bolsonaro’s supporters are also demanding he be allowed to run for presidency again in 2026, something the former leader has also called for.

On Sunday, Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, addressed chanting, flag-toting crowds of supporters in Sao Paulo. In tears, she told the throng that the trial had brought “humiliation” to her family. The date coincided with Brazil’s September 7 Independence Day, when the country gained freedom from Portugal in 1822.

Similarly, thousands have gathered in counterprotests in recent days, calling for Bolsonaro’s conviction and denouncing Washington’s support – under Trump – for the former leader.

In the capital, Brasilia, meanwhile, Lula’s Independence Day message was that Brazil is “nobody’s colony” and would not accept orders from anyone.

Advertisement

How might the US respond when a verdict is reached?

On Tuesday, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt suggested the US could react strongly – economically or even militarily – if there is a guilty verdict. She told a news conference: “This is a priority for the administration and the president is unafraid to use the economic might, the military might, of the United States to protect free speech around the world.” She did not provide any details, however.

In a response, Gleisi Hoffman, a Brazilian lawmaker and chief minister of the country’s Secretariat for Institutional Relations, condemned Leavitt’s statement, saying that the US was threatening to “invade Brazil to free Jair Bolsonaro from prison”.

“This is utterly unacceptable,” Hoffman said in a statement on X. “And yet [the US] claims to be defending ‘freedom of expression’. Only if it’s the freedom to lie, to coerce the Justice system, and to plot a coup d’etat; those are indeed the crimes for which Bolsonaro and his accomplices are being tried in due legal process.”

How has the Trump administration supported Bolsonaro?

Trump has repeatedly defended Bolsonaro – and has attempted to penalise Brazil for the trial of his ally.

In social media posts in July, the US president drew parallels between the Bolsonaro trial and his own prosecution for alleged involvement in an attack by protesters on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, after he lost the 2020 US presidential election to Joe Biden.

Trump also wrote a letter to President Lula, accusing him of mistreating Bolsonaro. The trial against Bolsonaro, he said, was an “international disgrace”.

In July, the US Department of State sanctioned Justice de Moraes, who is leading the Supreme Court panel for the trial. It accused him of suppressing freedom of expression and politicising prosecutions, including that of Bolsonaro.

De Moraes has been barred from obtaining a US visa, and any US properties he may own were ordered to be confiscated. The judge’s “allies” in the Supreme Court, as well as “certain family members”, have also been barred from US visas, although the State Department did not mention names.

On August 1, Trump slapped Brazil with a 50 percent trade tariff, citing the charges against Bolsonaro as part of the reason.

Trump stated that the high tariffs were “due in part to Brazil’s insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans”, saying that the verdict impacted not only Brazilians, but Americans, too.

Trump’s global trade war has primarily targeted countries that run a large trading surplus with the US. Brazilian imports from the US, however, already outweigh its exports; Washington had a trading surplus of $28.6bn in goods and services with Brazil in 2024.

Brazil’s Lula called the tariff escalation “authoritarian” but has not imposed reciprocal levies.

Could the US really use military force?

Leavitt’s suggestion that the US would not rule out military options against Brazil comes against the backdrop of the recent deployment of US naval forces to the Caribbean.

The US says its military forces are in the region to counter drug trafficking. However, the deployment comes as US threats against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whom US President Donald Trump’s administration has accused of being closely linked with drug trafficking groups, have ramped up.

In early September, US forces bombed a Venezuelan boat that the Trump administration claimed – without evidence – was carrying drug traffickers ferrying narcotics bound for the US. Lula has criticised the US military presence in the Caribbean Sea as “a factor of tension”.