France has advised French nationals to temporarily leave Mali “as soon as possible” as an armed group blockade upends daily life in the capital Bamako and other regions of the West African country.

The al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) has since September been targeting fuel tankers, particularly those coming from Senegal and the Ivory Coast, through which the majority of Mali’s imported goods transit.

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Since back-to-back coups in 2020 and 2021 that led to the end of France’s military presence in the country, Mali has been ruled by a military government that is struggling to counter various armed groups, including the JNIM.

“For several weeks, the security situation has been deteriorating in Mali, including in Bamako,” the French Foreign Ministry said in a travel advisory released on Friday.

“French nationals are advised to plan a temporary departure from Mali as soon as possible on the commercial flights still available,” it said, adding that “travel by land remains inadvisable, as national roads are currently the target of attacks by terrorist groups”.

On Thursday, ministry spokesman Pascal Confavreux said that France was following the deteriorating security situation in Mali “with great attention and genuine concern”, but that France’s diplomatic presence “remains unchanged” with the embassy open.

Last week, the United States and Britain announced the evacuation of their “nonessential” personnel and their families because of the deteriorating situation.

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France’s announcement came as the Geneva-based shipping group MSC said it was halting its operations in Mali, citing the fuel blockade and deteriorating security.

‘Admission of failure’

Fighters from JNIM have for weeks imposed the fuel blockade, which has paralysed the landlocked Sahelian country’s economy.

It has forced the government to close schools, prevented harvesting in several regions and limited access to electricity.

While JNIM has long laid siege to towns in other parts of the country, this is the first time it has used the tactic on the capital city.

Earlier this week, President Assimi Goita called on citizens to do their part, particularly by reducing unnecessary travel, while promising to “do everything possible to deliver fuel”.

For Alioune Tine, formerly the United Nations’ independent expert on the human rights situation in Mali, the leader’s statement was a “terrible admission of failure”.

The ruling military government had promised to stem the growing insecurity that has plagued the country for more than a decade.

While it broke ties with former Western military allies, including France, it has instead partnered with Russian paramilitaries to fight armed groups.

But “the Malian state no longer controls anything” within its territory, Bakary Sambe from the Dakar-based Timbuktu Institute think tank told the AFP news agency.

Instead, he said, it “is concentrating its forces around Bamako to secure the regime”.

And the population’s initial support for the military rulers “is beginning to erode in the face of the military regime’s inability to keep its security promise”, he added.

JNIM’s main objective is to capture and control territory and to expel Western influences in its region of control. Some experts suggest that JNIM may be seeking to control major capitals and, ultimately, to govern the country as a whole.

However, observers say Bamako falling seems unlikely at this stage, as JNIM lacks military and governance capacity.

“I do not believe JNIM possesses the capability or intent to take Bamako at this time, though the threat it now poses to the city is unprecedented”, Charlie Werb, an analyst with Aldebaran Threat Consultants, said.

JNIM is one of several armed groups operating in the Sahel, a vast strip of semi-arid desert stretching from North to West Africa, where fighting is spreading rapidly, with large-scale attacks.

The group has killed thousands of people since 2017. Human rights groups accuse it of attacking civilians, especially people perceived to be assisting government forces.

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