Washington, DC – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been warning of a grave Iranian threat to Israel and the world for more than 30 years.

United States President Donald Trump heeded those warnings in June and bombed Tehran’s nuclear facilities. But it appears that Netanyahu is still not satisfied and will be pushing for more military actions against Iran when he returns to the US on Sunday to visit Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

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This time, the focus is on Iran’s missile programme.

Israeli officials and their US allies are beating the drums of war against Iran once again, arguing that Tehran’s missiles must be addressed urgently.

But analysts said another clash with Iran would stand in stark opposition to Trump’s stated foreign policy priorities.

Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy think tank, said that while Trump is pushing to deepen economic cooperation and forge diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab states, Netanyahu is seeking military domination over the region.

“This desire for perpetual US involvement, for perpetual wars against Iran to really break the Iranian state reflects Israel’s aim for unchallenged dominance, unchallenged hegemony and expansionism,” Toossi said.

“And so I think that’s at the root of Netanyahu’s goals and the direction he wants to push the US into supporting, but that’s going to come to a head with US interests going in another direction and wanting more stability in the region that doesn’t necessitate direct American military involvement.”

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Since brokering a truce in Gaza, which Israel has been violating almost daily, Trump, who portrays himself as a peacemaker, has been claiming that he brought peace to the Middle East for the first time in 3,000 years.

And his administration’s recently released National Security Strategy says the region is “emerging as a place of partnership, friendship, and investment” that is no longer a priority for the US.

Shifting the goal posts

As the US promises to diminish its military and strategic footprint in the Middle East, Israel appears to be lobbying for a war that could drag Washington into conflict.

In past decades, Israel has drummed up Iran’s nuclear programme as the top threat to its security and the world.

But Trump has been insisting that the US strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities in June wiped out the programme.

Regardless of the accuracy of Trump’s assessment, his proclamation has pushed Israel to find another boogeyman, analysts said, to avoid contradicting the US president publicly.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president at the Quincy Institute, a US think tank that promotes diplomacy, said that since Trump has declared “rightly or wrongly” the nuclear issue resolved, Israel is switching the focus to missiles to keep the pressure on Tehran.

“Netanyahu is pushing the United States to join Israel in yet another war with Iran, this time with a focus on the missiles, partly because Trump is not receptive to the idea of addressing the nuclear issue – since he has said that he fixed it, he ‘obliterated’ the programme,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.

“The Israelis will constantly shift the goal posts in order to make sure that they can make the confrontation with Iran an endless, forever war.”

Iran has always maintained that its nuclear programme is peaceful, unlike Israel, which is widely believed to possess an undeclared nuclear arsenal.

Tehran has also never launched missiles at Israel unprompted.

During the June war, Iran fired hundreds of missiles towards Israel, dozens of which penetrated the country’s multilayered air defences, but it was Israel that launched the war without apparent provocation.

Israel’s supporters focus on missiles

Still, Israel and its allies have been sounding the alarm about the Iranian missile programme, warning that Tehran is recovering and increasing its production capacity.

“While Israel’s Operation Rising Lion succeeded in destroying much of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, Israel estimates that some 1,500 missiles remain out of the 3,000 Iran had previously,” the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) said in an email to supporters this month.

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“The ballistic missile threat from Iran will be on the agenda when Prime Minister Netanyahu travels to Florida on Sunday and meets with President Trump Monday at Mar-a-Lago.”

Senator Lindsey Graham, an Iran hawk who is close to Trump, visited Israel this month and repeated the talking points about the dangers of Iran’s long-range missiles, warning that Iran is producing them “in very high numbers”.

“We cannot allow Iran to produce ballistic missiles because they could overwhelm the Iron Dome,” he told The Jerusalem Post, referring to Israel’s air defence system. “It’s a major threat.”

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has also highlighted Iran’s missile capacity, suggesting that Netanyahu’s government will not tolerate any threats in the region.

“The defence establishment is closely monitoring developments, and naturally, I cannot elaborate beyond that,” Katz was quoted as saying by The Times of Israel.

“But on one principle, there is no dispute: What was before October 7 will not be again,” he was quoted as saying in reference to the 2023 Hamas-led attacks on Israel. “We will not allow threats of annihilation against the state of Israel.”

But critics said Israel is seeking hegemony in the region, not merely snuffing out existential threats.

Its ultimate goal is seen as changing Iran’s government or carrying out periodic strikes to keep the country weakened and without meaningful military capabilities.

“The Israelis will come back every six months with another plan to bomb Iran, and then it will not end until Trump decides to end it,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.

“So if he acquiesces again, as he did in June, he will face the Israelis once again next June with another war plan, and next December and next June again. It will not stop until he stops it.”

Trump’s base

Foreign policy hawks who advocate for a change in Iran’s government once dominated Trump’s Republican Party.

But partly thanks to Trump himself, now large segments of the base staunchly oppose military interventions and favour focusing on US problems.

That America First movement, represented by influential right-wing media figures like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon, pleaded with Trump against attacking Iran in June.

Even the late Charlie Kirk, a close Trump ally and staunch Israel supporter, spoke out against US involvement in the war.

Carlson has already slammed Israel’s renewed push for war.

“It’s been less than six months since Trump risked a war with Iran on Netanyahu’s behalf, but instead of acting grateful, the prime minister is already demanding more,” he wrote in his newsletter this month. “This is the definition of a parasitic relationship.”

However, the Republican caucus in Congress remains overwhelmingly aligned with Israel, and Trump’s top foreign policy aide, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is an Iran hawk.

Pro-Israel megadonors who helped bankroll Trump’s campaign, like Miriam Adelson, will also likely exert counterpressure against the America First voices in the Trump movement.

“Those are hugely important factors, but I think it’s important to understand that they go both ways,” Parsi said of the domestic considerations for war with Iran.

“The voters don’t want this. The donors – at least a large number of them – want this. And come midterm elections [in November 2026], those are going to be two pressures in opposite directions from two groups, both of whom Trump believes that he needs.”

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Toossi said political calculations for a war with Iran are more relevant now than they were in June because we are closer to the 2026 elections, which will decide who controls Congress.

“Trump’s popularity is very low now with the affordability crisis and this conservative fissure over foreign policy. So I think all of these factors serve as a limitation on Trump’s ability to get into a big war,” he said.

Risk of escalation

Trump was able to claim victory after the US strikes in June.

He backed Israel, damaged the Iranian nuclear programme and kept his base intact without dragging the US into another protracted conflict.

After an Iranian missile attack against a US base in Qatar, which did not result in American casualties, Trump announced a ceasefire to end the war after 12 days.

But analysts warned that a second round of bombardment against Iran may not be as easy to end.

Parsi said the restraint that Iran showed in June is unlikely to be replicated because Tehran’s unwillingness to escalate was perceived as weakness by the Western world.

“The Iranian response would be much harsher, much quicker because the Iranians understand that unless they strike back hard and dispel the view that Iran is a country that you can bomb every six months – unless they do that – Iran will become a country that Israel will bomb every six months,” he said.

Parsi warned that Israel may start attacking Iran unilaterally and count on US air defences in the region to come to its aid, slowly pulling the US into the conflict.

He said Trump must stop Israel from launching an attack from the start.

“If they don’t want Israel to start that war, you tell Israel, ‘Don’t start that war. And we are completely out.’ That would be the America First position to take,” he said.

Parsi invoked Trump’s National Security Strategy (NSS), which stated that Washington’s “historic reason for focusing on the Middle East will recede” as the region moves towards greater cooperation and less conflict.

“Well, then, recede,” Parsi said.

“So many administrations in a row have said something along these lines, whether in the NSS or outside of it. Then do it.”