Sarwar makes his biggest political gamble – but can it pay off?

31 minutes agoGlenn CampbellBBC Scotland political editor

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This was a big, bold intervention from Anas Sarwar – to be the first leading Labour figure to call for the prime minister to go.

He has done so out of frustration and anger.

Anger at the prime minister’s handling of the Mandelson mess.

He said on Thursday that the Labour peer should never have been considered for the job of UK ambassador to Washington.

That was a pretty heavy criticism of Starmer albeit that he said at that time it could be possible for him to remain PM.

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Sarwar’s position hardened over the weekend.

He is no longer prepared to defend a prime minister in whom he has lost confidence.

He is frustrated that the PM’s accepted misjudgement in appointing Mandelson, despite his known links to Jeffrey Epstein, is not an isolated error.

Many in Scottish Labour believe the blunders and about turns that have marked Starmer’s leadership are wrecking their Holyrood election campaign.

Just 18 months ago, Sarwar looked like a contender for the job of first minister – a serious challenger to the SNP’s John Swinney.

Today, Scottish Labour appears to be trailing the SNP by a long way if the trend in opinion polls and the party’s own canvassing paints an accurate picture.

Sarwar felt that if he did nothing his prospects were unlikely to improve.

Instead, he has taken a big gamble and decided to do something – taking a stand on Starmer’s leadership in the hope that it changes the political weather.

At first glance, he has opened up divisions in Scottish Labour with MSPs like Jackie Baillie and Monica Lennon backing him and MPs like the Scottish secretary Douglas Alexander and his predecessor Ian Murray rallying behind the prime minister.

If support for Starmer hardens and he remains in office – the rift between him and Sarwar could run through Labour’s Holyrood campaign.

How would a potential first minister Sarwar be able to do business with prime minister Starmer having called for him to go?

Far from removing the Downing Street dimension from the Scottish debate, it could make it more of a thing – especially if UK ministers campaign in Scotland.

The former Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross got himself into a similar position when he called for Boris Johnson to quit over Covid parties.

Of course, it is still possible that Starmer is forced out sooner rather than later.

What’s next?

Maybe Sarwar will not be the first senior figure in the party to pressure the PM to step down. Maybe that pressure will become too much.

There is a difficult by-election coming soon in Gorton and Denton. Might a bad result for Labour there provide new momentum for a change at the top?

If the prime minister goes, perhaps some in Labour and in the voting public will give Sarwar credit for having raised his doubts.

The SNP would certainly need a new slogan having urged voters to back them to get rid of Starmer. That line certainly doesn’t work if he’s already gone.

Arguably, it’s a bit suspect anyway given that the primary purpose of a Holyrood election is to choose a Scottish government.

If Starmer goes soonish that still doesn’t stop Westminster political drama distracting from debates about the NHS, education and housing in Scotland.

The big questions in UK politics would be about who should replace Starmer? Will there be a coronation or a contest?

And in Scotland, Sarwar would repeatedly be asked who would he prefer to take over? Does he back the stance of this or that potential candidate?

However this plays out, Sarwar has signalled that he is his own man rather than Labour’s branch office manager in Scotland.

But taking a stand against his UK party leader still risks trashing a brand under which they both campaign.