Pakistan’s men’s cricket team will boycott its match against India at the T20 World Cup in support of Bangladesh, who were excluded from the tournament after refusing to travel to India for their games over security concerns.

The move will disrupt the tournament as the India-Pakistan fixture has historically been the most lucrative and widely followed fixture at any cricket tournament.

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The International Cricket Council (ICC) has warned the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) of “significant and long-term implications for cricket in its own country” and an impact on the global cricket ecosystem.

But what are these implications and how could this boycott affect cricket’s future?

How will the ICC react to Pakistan’s boycott?

While the global cricket body has responded to Pakistan’s boycott by saying the decision could damage the game and it hopes to resolve the matter with the PCB, the ICC has not explicitly laid out a plan of action in case a resolution is not achieved.

Al Jazeera reached out to the ICC but has not received a response.

Cricket experts believe the ICC would have set a plan in motion by reaching out to the PCB and calling a board meeting to resolve the crisis.

“The ball is in the ICC’s court now,” Sami Ul Hasan, former head of the ICC’s media and communications department, told Al Jazeera.

“The ICC will call a board meeting and convene all members to help resolve this situation. All the powers of the ICC rest with its board, who will decide on the next step.

“Pakistan are already in Sri Lanka and will play on the opening day of the tournament. The meeting should take place as soon as possible.”

What possible actions could the ICC take?

Being the sport’s global governing body, the ICC enjoys full control over the game, its tournaments and how the game is run.

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“The ICC has wide-ranging powers,” Hasan said.

“It could go all the way from slapping fines to suspending the membership of a board,” he explained, adding that as a former cricket administrator, he hoped the ICC would not go down that road.

“Suspensions and sanctions are not the solution as extreme steps weaken the small cricketing fraternity. I’d like to see them resolve this so it doesn’t turn into a major crisis which can have long-term effects on cricket.”

What do the ICC’s regulations say?

All member boards participating in an ICC event sign a participation agreement that outlines the rules, laws and provisions for the member boards and ICC.

According to Hasan, the PCB could rely on one such provision to defend its case.

“The force majeure clause, which is available to all nations, explicitly states that if the government of any participating nation stops its team from participating, the team cannot play,” he explained. “We don’t know how the ICC’s legal team will interpret this law.”

He explained that if both parties reach a deadlock and the matter turns into a legal battle, the ICC’s dispute resolution committee could take the case to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), an independent organisation that resolves sports disputes.

Hasan warned against such a move, saying it would not be a good advertisement for the game of cricket.

Is Pakistan’s move unprecedented? If not, then why is the ICC threatening it?

Pakistan’s boycott is not the first instance of a team refusing to play a match upon the directives of its government.

The 1996 Cricket World Cup, cohosted by Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka, was the first one to be hit by a boycott when Australia and the West Indies refused to travel to Sri Lanka over security concerns and forfeited points.

In 2003, New Zealand and England pulled out of their games in Kenya and Zimbabwe due to their governments’ deadlock with the administrations of the African nation.

However, Hasan believes Pakistan’s boycott against India will have far bigger ramifications on the tournament and the sport.

“The value of this game is far too big for the ICC to overlook,” he said.

How big will be the ICC’s losses?

According to Hasan, who has worked during multiple ICC World Cups, the governing body will incur severe losses if the fixture does not take place as scheduled.

“The biggest hit, if the biggest game of the tournament does not take place, will come from media rights, which form the main chunk of the revenue for the ICC,” he explained.

“The ICC sells media rights for all the games, of which India-Pakistan is the biggest and most valued.

“If the match doesn’t take place, the sponsors will not pay for the rights of that match, and the ICC will incur losses. While we don’t know the figures, the loss will be significant.”

The ICC operates as a nonprofit global sports body that earns revenue from its various events and distributes it to its member boards. Therefore, Hasan explained, the ICC itself will not incur a loss but the blow will be felt by member boards.

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“It [a boycott] can lead to financial and legal implications, which will have a knock-on effect on future ICC tournaments as well.

“The financial implications will be hard for certain countries – barring India, Australia and England – that rely on the ICC’s revenues to ensure the game continues to progress.”

Could Pakistan face financial sanctions?

The previously forfeited matches did not result in financial blows or bans for the boycotting teams, but given the massive financial losses feared by this boycott, the ICC might make the PCB pay.

“The ICC could go back to the PCB and pass on the loss to them,” Hasan said.

The former cricket administrator believes Pakistan’s government must have weighed all possible punitive measures when it decided to boycott the game.

“It wouldn’t have been an easy decision [for Pakistan].”

How does Pakistan’s boycott affect the future of cricket?

If there is no India-Pakistan game on February 15, it will be the first instance of the blockbuster match being forfeited at an ICC World Cup.

The move, Hasan believes, could damage the sport.

“Global cricket will take a big hit if the right decisions are not made behind closed doors,” he said.

Hasan pointed towards the incident that caused the chain of events leading up to boycott, saying one official’s statement could have avoided the turmoil.

Star Bangladeshi fast bowler Mustafizur Rahman was ousted from the Indian Premier League (IPL) upon instructions from the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI), due to the ongoing political tensions between the two nations.   

“Due to the recent developments which are going on all across, BCCI has instructed the franchise KKR to release one of their players, Mustafizur Rahman of Bangladesh, from their squad,” BCCI Secretary Devajit Saikia said last month.

Hasan lamented the timing and the wordings of the statement.

“We must remember that this situation arose due to one player’s removal and one administrator’s statement – the player was Mustafizur Rahman and the statement was made by the secretary of the BCCI.

“From there, we have arrived at this point.”