Doha, Qatar – The sight of plumes of smoke in the aftermath of Israeli bombings have become commonplace across the Middle East in recent months – but in the skyline of Qatar’s glitzy capital, it was wholly unprecedented.

Israel’s attack on Doha on Tuesday – the sixth country it has attacked this year – appeared to target the Palestinian group Hamas’s negotiating team, who were speculated at the time to be on the brink of closing a ceasefire deal for Gaza.

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Qatar has played host to truce negotiations throughout the nearly two-year conflict, a leading mediator in the process – never a combatant. It is also a US ally, and the home of the US’s largest military base in the Middle East.

Israel ignored red lines to stage its attack in the densely populated area of Qatar’s capital, located near foreign embassies and schools, which killed five lower-ranked members of Hamas, as well as a Qatari Internal Security Force officer.

The attack has triggered a cascade of anger throughout Qatar’s government, which has condemned it as “state terrorism” and a “reckless criminal attack”.

“They see this as an act of cowardice and treachery,” Rashid al-Mohanadi, a nonresident fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.

“Israel’s attempt to assassinate the [Hamas] negotiation team in the country of the mediator shows that the Israelis don’t have any seriousness when it comes to reaching a [ceasefire] settlement.”

The attack has not only called into question how Qatar might respond, but also the future of its well-established mediator role, as well as its defence alliances.

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“This attack will be one of the important historical shocks that will lead Qatar and other GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] states to continue their pursuit of diversified partnerships and [to] further pursue strategic autonomy,” Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.

‘Straw that breaks the camel’s back’?

Qatar will likely leverage its role as a mediator in response to Israel’s attack, as its options are limited, according to Cinzia Bianco, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“Its main leverage is to pull back from the role it has been playing for years … and use that as leverage to say, look, if you [do] not respect the neutrality of mediation, then you can no longer count on us to mediate for this conflict,” Bianco told Al Jazeera.

However, Bianco added, this would likely only be useful in pushing the US to act, rather than Israel, which appears to have little interest in agreeing to a ceasefire deal.

Qatar could also use economic pressure against Israel, said al-Mohanadi.

“All options are on the table and economic pressure can be imposed on the allies of Israel, namely Europe and the US,” if they do not take serious steps to stop Israel, al-Mohanadi said. Qatar has billions of dollars worth of investments in Europe and the US.

Vakil suggests that Arab states could use their diplomatic influence to urge Western allies to implement effective constraints on Israel’s actions.

“Israel has struck seven countries in the Middle East, and hitting Qatar – I think, [it] could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for Israel,” she said.

Vakil added that the Trump administration might apply more direct pressure on Israel, which is ultimately what Arab states, including Qatar, hope to see to prevent further security threats.

Furthermore, Qatar has the option of going to the United Nations to diplomatically isolate Israel. An emergency UN Security Council meeting will take place on Thursday in response to Israel’s attack, following requests from Algeria, Pakistan, and other nations, according to diplomatic sources.

On Wednesday, Doha also announced the creation of a legal team headed by Qatari diplomat Mohammed bin Abdulaziz al-Khulaifi, “to take all legal measures against the treacherous Israeli attack, considering it an assault on the state’s sovereignty and a flagrant violation of international law, conventions, and norms”.

The future of Qatari mediation

Despite its limited options for a response, in al-Mohanadi’s view, Qatar is unlikely to abandon its mediator role and will continue to push for a ceasefire through the use of multilateral organisations like the UN Security Council.

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“Qatar will never cease to be the mediator, because mediation is literally in [Qatar’s] constitution,” al-Mohanadi said, adding that the attack will only be a “dent” in the role it has assumed in many conflicts for the past decade.

Qatar has served as a mediator in various international conflicts, facilitating peace discussions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, spearheading initiatives to reunite Ukrainian children displaced by the Russian war, and acting as a crucial intermediary in Afghan peace and humanitarian negotiations by hosting talks with the Taliban.

Eleonora Ardemagni, a senior associate research fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), agrees that while there is an “extremely narrow” window for Gaza ceasefire negotiations at the moment, Qatar will continue to play its mediator role. US-Qatar ties, however, have been blighted by the attack.

“Qatar is aware that it can’t become the place where other powers in the region settle accounts – this is about … national security,” Ardemagni told Al Jazeera.

“US deterrence is no longer able to guarantee security for Qatar, as well as for the other GCC states.”

The strike, therefore, leaves Qatar in a difficult position when it comes to hosting Hamas’s political leadership, said the analysts.

“I don’t think that we are going to see an immediate eviction of Hamas’s leadership – that would appear to show weakness or [play] into Israel’s hands,” said Vakil.

Qatar will rather look for assurances from the US, given that “Qatar supported Hamas with the blessing of the United States many years ago and with the blessing of Israel,” said Vakil.

Qatari officials have repeatedly stated that the decision to host the Hamas leadership came after a request from the US.

In a 2023 opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal, the Qatari ambassador to the US, Sheikh Meshal bin Hamad Al Thani, said that Washington wanted the office “to establish indirect lines of communication with Hamas”.

While the analysts concurred that Hamas leadership would not face immediate expulsion from Doha, Bianco indicated there is a “strong chance” Qatar will reconsider hosting the group.

Following international backlash after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, Doha had already been evaluating this risk, but chose to maintain the relationship to help resolve the Gaza conflict, she explained.

“But if the price to be paid is that … they themselves become targets, I think, [it will] probably no longer [be] worth it,” said Bianco, noting that any relocation would likely be a coordinated, consensual transfer of the group to another location.

Security diversification and soft power blows

Tuesday’s attack will likely accelerate Qatar’s – and the broader Gulf countries’ – pursuit of diversified security arrangements, according to al-Mohanadi.

That could mean building up their own collective defence capabilities or seeking security partnerships with actors like China, he said.

“What happened yesterday was not [just a] breach on Qatar, it was a breach on the entire GCC, which was always off limits,” said the analyst.

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The extent of this diversification will hinge on the US response to the attack, he added.

However, as a major non-NATO ally of the US, Qatar’s defence posture changes will likely emerge gradually rather than immediately, Vakil pointed out.

“There are not too many options for Qatar for it to pivot and move somewhere else … Over the long term, Qatar will look to forge or diversify bilateral and multilateral relationships,” she explained.

The analysts predict Gulf countries will unite over shared concerns about regional destabilisation.

“With the Iranian attack against Al Udeid first and now with the Israeli strike on Doha, something has changed in the perception that Gulf leaders have about the future,” said Ardemagni, referring to Iran’s attack in June on the Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, the largest US military base in the Middle East.

“There’s a growing sense of Gulf identity and unity vis-a-vis external attacks. I see a rise of patriotism and the sense of [a] national unity … among Qatari residents and citizens.”

While the analysts agree that Qatar’s international investments – from London real estate holdings to ownership of European football clubs – will remain unaffected, Israel’s actions have dealt a blow to Qatar’s domestic soft power ambitions.

“This attack also is an indirect aggression against [Qatar’s] aspiration to become a tourist hub and to hold more international events,” said al-Mohanadi.