The Dutch centrist liberal party of Rob Jetten has won Wednesday’s neck-and-neck election race, according to vote analysis indicating it cannot be beaten by anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders.

Jetten’s D66 currently has a narrow lead of 15,000 votes over Wilders’ Freedom Party, and Dutch news agency ANP says even though the vote count is not complete, Wilders can no longer win.

Projections from almost 99% of the vote put both parties on 26 seats in the 150-seat parliament – but ANP says Jetten’s centrists could win a 27th seat.

Victory will mean Jetten will be able to start work on forming a coalition.

Wilders had led opinion polls going into Wednesday’s election, but Rob Jetten, 38, succeeded in winning in some of the main Dutch cities including Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht with a positive campaign using a catchphrase of “Yes, we can”.

He has been careful not to declare victory until all votes are in, but ANP said based on figures from the postal voters he could now be declared the winner.

Although his path to forming a coalition is not straightforward, he is tipped to become the youngest prime minister in modern Dutch history.

Jetten said after the vote that never before had a party won a Dutch election with fewer than 30 seats.

He will need the support of at least three other parties to gather the 76 seats needed to form a coalition. The most obvious candidates would be the conservative-liberal VVD, the left-wing Labour (PvdA)-GreenLeft alliance and the Christian Democrats, but it could take months if that is to happen.